首页|Regional Storm Surge Forecast Method Based on a Neural Network and the Coupled ADCIRC-SWAN Model

Regional Storm Surge Forecast Method Based on a Neural Network and the Coupled ADCIRC-SWAN Model

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Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.

regional storm surge forecastcoupled ADCIRC-SWAN modelneural networkRes-U-Net structure

Yuan SUN、Po HU、Shuiqing LI、Dongxue MO、Yijun HOU

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Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266071,China

Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate,Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center,Qingdao 266237,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Center for Ocean Mega-Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Qingdao 266071,China

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2025

大气科学进展(英文版)
中国科学院大气物理研究所

大气科学进展(英文版)

影响因子:0.741
ISSN:0256-1530
年,卷(期):2025.42(1)