全球地表气温对CO2浓度变化的非对称响应:能量平衡模式研究
Asymmetric Response of Global Temperature to Changes in CO2 Concentration:Energy Balance Models Study
屈侠 1黄刚2
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所季风系统研究中心,北京 100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
- 2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
气候系统属性可影响二氧化碳(CO2)浓度变化背景下全球地表气温演变的非对称性,但目前仍不清楚哪些属性的贡献相对关键.因第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)试验样本不足,基于45个CMIP6模式数据,逐一构建了快速、再现能力理想的两层能量模型,共开展了 391组试验.该模型试验结果显示,在对称的CO2浓度上升和下降演变下,平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数对全球地表气温演变的非对称性起主要贡献,它们主要通过改变CO2浓度下降期全球地表气温达峰后的降温速度来实现.因此,加深对气候系统平衡气候响应、深海热容量和海表—深海热传输系数的理解,有助于更科学地实现巴黎协定目标.
Abstract
Climate system properties influence asymmetry in global surface air temperature evolution under changes in carbon dioxide(CO2)concentration;however,it remains unclear which properties contribute more significantly.Owing to the insufficient number of samples from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)experiments,this study utilized the output of 45 CMIP6 models and constructed 391 sets of experiments using a two-layer energy balance model that was both rapid and reproducible.The experimental results demonstrate that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS),ocean heat capacity,and coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean play primary roles in the asymmetry of the Global Surface Air Temperature(GSAT)evolution under a fixed CO2 concentration rise and fall.This was achieved by altering the cooling rate after the GSAT peak during the CO2 concentration decline period.Therefore,a deeper understanding of the ECS,ocean heat capacity,and the coefficient of vertical heat exchange in the ocean may facilitate a more scientifically realistic achievement of the goals of the Paris Agreement.
关键词
全球地表气温/非对称响应/CO2浓度变化Key words
Global surface air temperature/Asymmetry/Changes in CO2 concentration引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42141019)
国家自然科学基金项目(42175055)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据