首页|气候和下垫面变化下骤旱形成演变机制研究进展

气候和下垫面变化下骤旱形成演变机制研究进展

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近年来以快速暴发为主要特征的骤发干旱(骤旱)在全球范围内频繁发生,给社会经济和生态环境造成了严重影响.通过回顾骤旱形成与演变机制的研究进展,发现骤旱形成的主要原因是高强度降水亏缺,而蒸散发增加使得干旱暴发加速,进而触发骤旱.这些气象要素异常与海温异常模态(如厄尔尼诺—南方涛动、北大西洋三极子、印度洋偶极子等)及其相关的大气环流异常密切相关,同时局地和非局地陆面异常在骤旱暴发与维持过程中的作用也不容忽视.加之气候和下垫面变化协同影响海—陆—气耦合过程,使得骤旱发生发展过程更为复杂,演变趋势存在较大不确定性.因此,未来研究亟须在骤旱暴发与维持的大尺度环流背景以及关键陆面和海洋信号的影响、骤旱—植被相互作用、骤旱演变对环境变化的响应机制等方面取得突破.
Review on the Formation and Evolution Mechanisms of Flash Droughts Under Climate and Land Cover Change
In recent years,flash droughts with rapid onset have occurred frequently worldwide,severely impacting society,economy,and the ecological environment.Major progress in the formation and evolution mechanisms of flash droughts has been reviewed.Concludingly,intense precipitation deficits cause flash droughts,whereas increased evapotranspiration accelerates drought onset,further triggering flash droughts.These abnormal meteorological factors are closely associated with sea surface temperature anomalies(such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation,North Atlantic Tripole,and Indian Ocean Dipole)and their related atmospheric circulation anomalies.In addition,the roles of local and non-local land surface anomalies in the onset and maintenance of flash droughts are important.Moreover,the synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on land-atmosphere-ocean coupling processes make the development of flash droughts more complex and add considerable uncertainty to evolutionary trends.Therefore,future research needs to achieve breakthroughs in several areas,including the large-scale atmospheric circulation background of flash drought onset and maintenance,modulating roles of key land and ocean signals,flash drought-vegetation interactions,and response mechanisms of the variation of flash droughts to climate warming and land cover changes.

Climate changeLand cover changesFlash droughtOcean-atmosphere-land coupling

袁星、周诗玙、马凤、王钰淼、郝奕、梁妙玲、陈李楠

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中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用重点实验室,北京 100029

南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京 210044

南京信息工程大学水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室(筹),江苏 南京 210044

中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081

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气候变化 下垫面变化 骤旱 海—陆—气耦合

2024

地球科学进展
中国科学院资源环境科学信息中心 国家自然科学基金委员会地球科学部 中国科学院资源环境科学与技术局

地球科学进展

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.045
ISSN:1001-8166
年,卷(期):2024.39(9)