Integrated prediction of summer precipitation in China based on multi dynamic-statistic methods
Summer precipitation prediction in China is important to the society and economic development,but still a challenging issue in current meteorological study,due to the uncertainty of climate system.Based on an extensive analysis of the effects of seven dynamic-statistic prediction methods on summer precipitation in China,this paper developed an unequal weight integration method(UWI).By comparing the spatial anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)and prediction score(PS)of the UWI method with those of single dynamic-statistic prediction and the prediction of the equal weight integration.It is found that UWI method has better performance than the systematic error correction,single dynamic-statistic method and equal weight integration.Prediction validations indicate that,(1)The average ACC of summer precipitation prediction in 2011-2020 given by UWI method is around 0.05～0.10,which is 0.13～0.18 higher than the systematic error correction(-0.08)and around 0.02～0.04 higher than the equal weight integration;(2)The average PS score of the UWI method is around 69.3～70.7,which is also obviously better than the equal weight integration and most single dynamic-statistic predictions.(3)The highest ACC of independent sample validation for the UWI method is 0.21 in 2021,which is also obviously higher than the equal weighted integration in 2021 being 0.14,and further confirmed the prediction effect of UWI method is better than that of the equal weighted integration.Therefore,the UWI method is expected to further improve the accuracy of summer precipitation prediction in China and improve the stability of prediction skills on the basis of the single dynamic-statistic method,which has the potential application value in the operational climate prediction.
万方数据
维普
