Numerical simulation and prediction of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index
The sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is an primary indicator to measure the sunspot magnetic field and the intensity of solar activity,which has a periodic variation pattern and characteristics.Based on the correspondence between the relative sunspot numbers and the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index,the sunspot magnetic field and polarity time series from 1749 to 2022 is reconstructed using the latest sunspot numbers.Through the cycle exploring method of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index,it is found that there are significant quasi-22.04,18.54,13.60-year cyclical laws,of which the quasi-22.04-year cyclicality is the strongest and the quasi-13.60-year cyclical is the weakest.The paper based on three-period to establish the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index and the time series of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is reconstructed by utilizing numerical simulation.Through comparisons simulate data to observation data not only simulate data are accurate,but both of them have the same periodic trends.Three solar magnetic activity cycles are simulated by three-period sunspot magnetic field and polarity index.It shows that the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is maintain quasi-22-year periodic and increasing over the next 60 years,which suggests that the intensity of solar cycle will be measurably stronger.The sunspot cycle 25 is due to peak in 2024 and the relative sunspot number will be about 136.72,which is correspond to multiple prediction method.The three-period sunspot magnetic field and polarity index has a few strong advantages in continual,long-term prediction.The paper has the important significance in solar activity and global climatic change.
SunspotsMagnetic field and polarityModel constructionNumerical simulationTrend prediction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
