太阳黑子磁场磁极性指标的数值模拟与预测
Numerical simulation and prediction of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index
孙威 1蔚筱霄 1刘福窑 1王建 2徐姝婷 1颜瑞1
作者信息
- 1. 上海工程技术大学数理与统计学院,上海 201620;上海工程技术大学计算物理与应用研究中心,上海 201620
- 2. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023;江苏第二师范学院地理科学学院,南京 210200;江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
- 折叠
摘要
太阳黑子磁场磁极性指数是表征太阳黑子磁极方向和太阳活动强弱的指标,具有周期性变化规律和特征.基于太阳黑子相对数与太阳黑子磁场磁极性指数的对应关系,利用太阳黑子相对数重构1749-2022年太阳黑子磁场磁极性时间序列;对太阳黑子磁场磁极性时间序列进行索周分析,结果表明具有主周期22.04年、次周期18.54年和三周期13.60年的变化特征.根据太阳黑子磁场磁极性指数的三个周期特征,构建"三周期"型太阳黑子磁场磁极性指标,并对构建指标进行数值模拟重建太阳黑子磁场磁极性时间序列,对比实测数据和模拟数据显示两者不仅数值上近似相等而且具有相同的周期性变化规律.利用"三周期"型太阳黑子磁场磁极性指标对太阳黑子第13、14、15磁周模拟预测,结果表明未来60年太阳黑子磁场磁极性指数保持准22年磁周期变化规律,指数呈递增趋势,太阳活动将逐步增强;对太阳黑子相对数进行预测,发现第25周太阳黑子峰值将发生于2024年,极大值为136.72,此结果与多种预测方法结果的均值一致,并保持太阳活动增强的趋势."三周期"型太阳黑子磁场磁极性指标在连续、长期的数据预测方面具有优势,在太阳活动和全球气候变化方面具有重要意义.
Abstract
The sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is an primary indicator to measure the sunspot magnetic field and the intensity of solar activity,which has a periodic variation pattern and characteristics.Based on the correspondence between the relative sunspot numbers and the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index,the sunspot magnetic field and polarity time series from 1749 to 2022 is reconstructed using the latest sunspot numbers.Through the cycle exploring method of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index,it is found that there are significant quasi-22.04,18.54,13.60-year cyclical laws,of which the quasi-22.04-year cyclicality is the strongest and the quasi-13.60-year cyclical is the weakest.The paper based on three-period to establish the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index and the time series of the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is reconstructed by utilizing numerical simulation.Through comparisons simulate data to observation data not only simulate data are accurate,but both of them have the same periodic trends.Three solar magnetic activity cycles are simulated by three-period sunspot magnetic field and polarity index.It shows that the sunspot magnetic field and polarity index is maintain quasi-22-year periodic and increasing over the next 60 years,which suggests that the intensity of solar cycle will be measurably stronger.The sunspot cycle 25 is due to peak in 2024 and the relative sunspot number will be about 136.72,which is correspond to multiple prediction method.The three-period sunspot magnetic field and polarity index has a few strong advantages in continual,long-term prediction.The paper has the important significance in solar activity and global climatic change.
关键词
太阳黑子/磁场磁极性/模型构建/数值模拟/趋势预测Key words
Sunspots/Magnetic field and polarity/Model construction/Numerical simulation/Trend prediction引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41807437)
国家自然科学基金(11803020)
国家自然科学基金(11533004)
国家自然科学基金(U2031145)
长宁区创新团队人才发展专项联合资助()
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据