Research on Urban Development Boundary Delineation Using Coupled Markov Chain and PLUS Models from the Perspective of Main Functions
The urban development boundary guides and restricts the future land use and territorial spatial pattern of the city. The positioning of main functions is the basis for formulating strategic measures for territorial spatial development and protection. However,existing urban development boundary delineation research does not take into account the impact of main functions. Based on land use data from 2009 to 2021,this article selects three typical main functional areas:key ecological functional areas in Chengjiang City,main agricultural product production areas in Luliang County,and urbanized areas within main urban area of Kunming City. The coupled PLUS model,uniformly increasing Markov chain,and analytic hierarchy process are used to simulate land use changes and delineate urban development boundaries in 2035 according to ecological protection,agricultural production,and urban development scenarios according to the main function types,and further put forward the quantity and spatial pattern optimization plans. Results show that:1) There are differences in the influencing factors of changes in urban construction land in different types of main functional areas. Key ecological functional areas and main agricultural product production areas are mainly affected by social factors,while urbanized areas are mainly affected by natural factors;2) A uniformly increasing Markov chain is proposed to quantitatively simulate land use,with an accuracy exceeding 96％. Three types of land use are predicted through the PLUS model,and the Fom value ranges from 0.1 to 0.3. The coupled model can better reflect future land use changes;3) We carry out simulation analysis of urban construction land with different main functional types and compare the delineated urban development boundaries with the actual demarcation results. It is proposed that Chengjiang City should reduce the boundary scale,Luliang County should optimize the layout,avoid contiguous cultivated land and appropriately reduce the boundary scale,and the boundary scale of Kunming's main urban area is reasonable,but the spatial layout can be optimized in part. The delineation of urban development boundaries should take into account the functional positioning of different entities and cannot simply be limited by a unified expansion multiple. This article proposes an improved model and coupling method for urban development boundary delineation in the context of the main function strategy,which can provide a basis for relevant government departments to carry out specific work.
three zones delineated by three lines for land usemain functional areaurban development boundaryscenario forecastPLUS modelurban agglomeration in central Yunnan
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
