Reliability modelling and analysis of LNG cryogenic storage tanks considering uncertainty
LNG cryogenic storage tanks serve as a crucial facility for the storage and transpor-tation of liquefied natural gas(LNG).Given the numerous factors that can contribute to failures,as well as the diversity of failure states and the ambiguity of causal relationships,a reliability modeling and analysis method for LNG storage tanks is proposed based on uncertainty theory and techniques.Firstly,the T-S fuzzy fault tree is utilized to replace the traditional fault tree construct an LNG storage tank failure model,so as to ensure modeling accuracy and analytical granularity.Secondly,an expert-assisted mechanized allocation method is adopted to address the challenge of probability allocation when the number of T-S fuzzy gate description rules increases significantly,while fuzzy group decision-making theory is introduced to solve the problem of estimating the prior probabilities of basic events under conditions of scarce failure data.Finally,through a mapping mechanism,the LNG storage tank T-S fault tree is transformed into a Bayesian network(BN),leveraging the advantages of BN's bidirectional reasoning and multi-source information fusion to efficiently solve reliability indicators and rapidly diagnose key causes.The reliability assessment of a specific LNG cryogenic storage tank has verified the practicality and effectiveness of the pro-posed method,providing theoretical support and decision-making guidance for the design optimi-zation and reliability maintenance of LNG storage tank systems.
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维普
