Geopolitical Risk,Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bilateral Trade——A Perspective Based on China and Its Major Trading Partners
s:The current complex evolution of the global political and economic landscape,the turbulent internation-al environment,and the constant geopolitical conflicts have led to greater uncertainties in the high-quality develop-ment of China's foreign trade.Based on bilateral trade data between China and its trading partners from 1993 to 2021,this paper investigates whether bilateral trade is affected by geopolitical risks.The findings indicate that:(1)An increase in geopolitical risks among trading partners inhibits bilateral trade between China and its trading part-ners;(2)Before 2003,the obstructive effect of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade was significant,but this effect di-minished thereafter;(3)Compared with developing economies,the inhibitory effect of geopolitical risks on bilater-al trade is more pronunced in developed economies;(4)The economic policy uncertainties of major trading part-ners exacerbates the negative impact of geopolitical risks on bilateral trade between China and its trading partners.Accordingly,this paper provides policy implications for China to promote trade development amidst unprecedented global changes.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
