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逆全球化背景下在华外资退出趋向与稳外资对策研究

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在国内外环境深刻复杂变化的当下,理性认识外资退出现象并进行合理引导和应对,是推动中国外资扩增量、稳存量、提质量和畅通国内国际双循环需要面对的重要问题.本文从全局视角考察了在华外资退出的新趋向和新特征,并进一步探讨了外资企业退出的前因后果,为留住优质外资和控制外资退出负面影响提出了应对策略.研究发现,我国正处于新增外资扩大和部分存量外资撤离并存的阶段,其中,低端制造业和高端制造业同时面临外资退出压力,服务业尤其是生产性服务业外资退出势头明显增强.究其原因,既包括由优胜劣汰机制下竞争优势丧失而引起的被迫撤离,也有传统引资优势衰弱和他国竞争性引资政策双向推拉因素作用下的主动外迁,同时还有中美贸易摩擦催化下的政治性撤资.高端制造业外资退出可能会对我国产业高质量发展带来不利影响,而低端制造业和服务业领域的外资退出长远来看具有"腾笼换鸟"效应.因此,应从构建外资安全动态预警系统、发挥区域联动优势推进中西部地区承接外资产业转移等方面设计针对性举措.本文对于新形势和新挑战下"稳外资"目标的实现具有重要的参考价值.
Trends of Foreign Capital Withdrawal in China under the Background of De-Globalization and Strategies for Stabilizing Foreign Investment
In the context of profound and complex changes in both domestic and international environments,ratio-nally understanding the phenomenon of foreign capital withdrawal and effectively guiding and responding to it is crucial for promoting the expansion,stabilization,and quality improvement of foreign investment in China,as well as for facilitating the smooth operation of the dual circulation strategy.This paper examines the new trends and characteristics of foreign capital withdrawal in China from a holistic perspective,and further explores the causes and consequences of the withdraw of foreign-funded enterprises.It proposes countermeasures to retain high-quality foreign investment and mitigate the negative impact of foreign capital exit.The study finds that China is in a stage where new foreign investment is expanding while some existing foreign capital is being withdrawn.Among them,both low-end and high-end manufacturing are facing pressure from foreign capital exits,with a notable increase in the exit of foreign capital from the service sector,particularly in producer services.The reasons include forced with-drawals caused by the loss of competitive advantages under the survival of the fittest mechanism,active relocation driven by the decline of traditional investment advantages and the dual push-pull factors of competitive investment policies from other countries,as well as political divestment catalyzed by Sino-US trade frictions.The withdrawal of foreign capital in high-end manufacturing may have a negative impact on the high-quality development of Chi-na's industry,while the withdrawal of foreign capital in low-end manufacturing and service sectors may have a"changing birds in a cage"effect in the long run.Therefore,targeted measures should be designed,such as estab-lishing a dynamic early warning system for foreign investment security and leveraging regional synergy to promote the transfer of foreign-funded industries to central and western regions.This article provides important reference value for achieving the goal of stabilizing foreign investment under new situations and challenges.

foreign capital withdrawalmanufacturing reshoringstabilizing foreign investmentde-globalization

熊然、张慧、张程程

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广东药科大学,广东广州 510006

华东理工大学,上海 200237

外资退出 制造业回流 稳外资 逆全球化

广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目广东省哲学社会科学规划项目中山市社科规划项目

2023A1515110581GD24YYJ05自筹202426

2024

对外经贸实务
中国国际贸易学会 武汉科技学院

对外经贸实务

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.47
ISSN:1003-5559
年,卷(期):2024.42(7)