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中国和马来西亚产能合作及贸易增长因素研究

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随着"一带一路"倡议和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的实施,中国和马来西亚双方贸易持续增长.研究中马之间的贸易关系有助于加深我们对两国贸易互动的理解,为两国贸易持续健康发展提供有益参考.本文主要使用UNcomtrade数据,以10类产业为切入点,首先运用指数分析法分析两国贸易的互补性和竞争性,然后采用修正的恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)分解了中国对马来西亚出口的贸易增长因素,并得出如下结论:中马优势产业相似性与互补性共存,整体上中国对马来西亚的出口贸易具有较大的竞争压力;不同贸易增长因素对总效应的贡献值波动较大,但中国对马来西亚出口总效应呈上升趋势.最后结合研究结论,从产能合作和贸易增长因素两个方面提出促进两国贸易合作、优化两国贸易结构和增强两国贸易竞争力的对策建议.
Research on Production Capacity Cooperation and Trade Growth Factors between China and Malaysia
With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),trade between China and Malaysia has continued to grow.Studying the trade relationship between China and Malaysia will help deepen our understanding of the trade interaction between the two countries and provide useful references for the sustainable and healthy development of bilateral trade in the future.This paper mainly uses UN Com trade data and takes 10 industries as the entry point,first analyzes the complementarity and competitiveness of the two countries'trade with index analysis method,and then adopts the revised CMS model to decompose the trade growth factors of China's exports to Malaysia.The study concludes that there are similarities and complementarities between the dominant industries of China and Malaysia.Overall,China's export trade with Malaysia faces greater competitive pressure.Different trade growth factors contribute variably to the total effect,but the overall effect of China's exports to Malaysia displays an upward trajectory.Finally,based on the conclusion of the study,the paper provides some strategic recommendations to promote bilateral trade cooperation,optimize bilateral trade structure and enhance bilateral trade competitiveness from the perspectives of production capacity cooperation and trade growth factors.

CMS modeltrade growthproduction capacity cooperationadvantage analysis

李翔、张梦瑶、孟润泽

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新疆财经大学,新疆乌鲁木齐 830012

CMS模型 贸易增长 产能合作 优势分析

国家社会科学基金一般项目

19BJL129

2024

对外经贸实务
中国国际贸易学会 武汉科技学院

对外经贸实务

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.47
ISSN:1003-5559
年,卷(期):2024.42(7)