The Asymmetric Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on China's Imports of Wood Forest Products:An Empirical Analysis Based on NARDL Model
Based on the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2022,this paper uses the NARDL model to empirically analyze the asymmetric effects of RMB exchange rate volatilities on China's wood forest product imports.We found that:(1)the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has an asymmetric impact on the import volume of logs and sawn timber,but not on wood pulp.The increase of exchange rate volatility will reduce the import volume of logs,sawnwood and wood pulp(insignificant,-0.286,-0.236 respectively),while decreased volatility increases their import volumes(-0.360,-0.603,-0.318,respectively).(2)The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China's log imports is driven by a decrease in RMB exchange rate volatility rather than an increase.Based on the empirical research findings,this paper gives some suggestions for improving the domestic forest product risk avoidance market,establishing wood production bases in wood forest product exporting countries,and using RMB as the pricing currency to mitigate exchange rate risks.
exchange rate volatilityimports of wood forest productsasymmetryNARDL model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
