Analysis on the Evolution of Trade Patterns and Influencing Factors between Guangdong and ASEAN Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative
Under the Belt and Road Initiative,the trade relationship between Guangdong and ASEAN countries has presented new development opportunities,making the study of bilateral trade highly valuable.This paper employs the Trade Intensity Index,HM Index,and Trade Gravity Model to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of Guangdong's trade pattern with the ten ASEAN countries under the context of the Belt and Road initiative and its influencing factors.The research findings indicate that the trade volume between Guangdong and ASEAN countries continues to expand,while the bilateral trade difference gradually decreases.Malaysia has emerged as Guangdong's most important trading partner,followed by Thailand,while Singapore's position as a trading partner has declined.The intensity of import and export trade between Guangdong and ASEAN countries is increasing,with Guangdong's export dependence on the ASEAN market being relatively low but showing an increasing trend.Factors such as per capita GDP of Guangdong,per capita GDP of ASEAN countries,population size,and trade liberalization have a positive effect on bilateral trade between Guangdong and ASEAN countries,while the population size of Guangdong,distance between capitals,and weighted average tariffs negatively impact bilateral trade.
the Belt and Road InitiativeGuangdongASEANtrade patterns
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
