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中国与"一带一路"沿线国家数字产品出口的竞争性、互补性及贸易潜力

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本文界定了数字产品贸易的HS编码目录,定量分析2006-2022年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家数字产品贸易的比较优势、竞争性和互补性特征,并采用时变的随机前沿引力模型实证考察了其非效率因素和出口潜力.研究表明:样本期内中国数字产品出口的比较优势水平整体偏低,其中产品制造和要素驱动类产品的比较优势较强;尽管中国与沿线国家数字产品贸易存在较强的竞互性特征,但互补性水平整体更高且有所增强;WTO成员、签订自贸协定和进口国的贸易开放、人力资本和制度质量抑制贸易非效率,双边海运连通性差距、数字技术应用差距、研发投入差距、高技术产业发展差距促进贸易非效率;中国数字产品出口潜力在地理空间上呈现东南高西北低的特征,其中印度、俄罗斯、印尼、土耳其和越南等国潜力表现更好.最后,本文从塑造比较优势、提升出口效率和挖掘出口潜力等方面提出政策建议.
Research on the Competitiveness,Complementarity and Trade Potential of Digital Product Export Between China and Belt and Road Countries
This paper defines the HS code directory of digital products trade,quantitatively analyzing the compara-tive advantages,competitiveness and complementarity of digital product trade between China and Belt and Road(B&R)countries from 2006 to 2022,and empirically examines its inefficiency factor and export potential by adopt-ing a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model.The results show that,firstly,the comparative advantage of China's digital products export is generally lower during the sample period,in which the comparative advantage of product manufacturing and factor-driven products is stronger.Secondly,although the digital product trade between China and BR countries exists strong competitive and complementary relationship,overall level of complementarity is higher and enhanced.Thirdly,WTO members,the signing of free trade agreements and importers'trade openness,human capital and institutional quality inhibit trade inefficiency,while bilateral maritime connectivity gaps,digital technology application gaps,R&D investment gaps,and high-tech industry development gaps promote trade ineffi-ciency.Fourthly,China's digital product export potential in the geographic space shows the characteristics of high southeast and low northwest,among which India,Russia,Indonesia,Turkey and Vietnam demonstrate more poten-tial.Finally,this paper puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of shaping comparative advantage,improv-ing export efficiency and fully tapping into export potential.

The Belt and Road Initiativedigital productcompetitiveness and complementarityexport potentialstochastic frontier gravity model

邱志萍、林颖、牛译爽、朱坤琦

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东莞理工学院,广东东莞 523106

"一带一路" 数字产品 竞互性 出口潜力 随机前沿引力模型

2024

对外经贸实务
中国国际贸易学会 武汉科技学院

对外经贸实务

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.47
ISSN:1003-5559
年,卷(期):2024.42(9)