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美国"双赤字"与中国的应对之策

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在美国经济运行中,持续的经常账户赤字和高企的财政赤字是其显著特征,被称为"双赤字"现象.本文基于1987-2019年美国的宏观经济数据,对美国"双赤字"问题进行实证研究,得出美国财政赤字通过利率汇率传导机制对经常项目赤字产生正向影响的结论.同时,美国的"双赤字"问题对中国经济增长有负向溢出效应.在中美贸易结构调整、中国财税体制改革以及高质量发展背景下,提出中国需要推动国际贸易多元化、合理控制赤字规模以及加强国内经济结构调整的政策建议,以维护自身的经济利益和国际收支平衡.
The U.S.Twin Deficit and China's Countermeasures
In the operation of the United States economy,the persistent current account deficits and high fiscal deficits are prominent features,collectively known as the twin deficits phenomenon.Based on the macroeconomic data of the United States from 1987 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical study on the problem of twin deficits in the United States,and concludes that the United States fiscal deficit has a positive impact on the current account deficit through the interest rate and exchange rate transmission mechanism.Additionally,the U.S."twin deficits"problem has a negative spillover effect on China's economic growth.In the context of China-US trade restructuring,China's fiscal and taxation system reform,and high-quality development,this paper puts forward policy suggestions that China needs to promote international trade diversification,reasonably control the size of deficits,and strengthen domestic economic restructuring to safeguard its own economic interests and balance of payments.

U.S.twin deficitsfiscal policycointegration testspillover effects

李正旺、卫舒扬

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武汉纺织大学,湖北武汉 430200

美国双赤字 财政政策 协整检验 溢出效应

2024

对外经贸实务
中国国际贸易学会 武汉科技学院

对外经贸实务

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.47
ISSN:1003-5559
年,卷(期):2024.42(9)