岩爆灾害对地下矿山安全开采影响较大，准确可靠的岩爆灾害预测对安全生产意义重大。为了准确有效地进行岩爆灾害预测，首先，选取应力系数、脆性系数、弹性能量指数以及岩体完整性系数作为预测指标，建立了岩爆预测指标体系;其次，在层次分析法(A H P)、改进CRITIC法以及距离函数判别法确定综合常权重基础上，利用变权理论对常权重进行动态修正;然后，引入有效度对最大后验概率原则进行改进，构建了变权贝叶斯岩爆烈度等级预测模型。最后，选取15组岩爆工程实例进行模型可靠性验证和准确率对比，并采用该模型对金川二矿1 000 m水平中段进行了岩爆预测。研究表明:变权贝叶斯岩爆预测模型准确率可达93％;金川二矿1 000 m水平中段岩爆烈度等级为无～轻微，岩爆危害较小，预测结果与实际相符，可为岩爆防治提供依据。
Prediction Model of Rockburst Based on Variable Weight Bayesian and Its Application
Rockburst has a large impact on the safe mining of underground mines,and accurate and reliable prediction of rockburst is of great significance to safe production.In order to accurately and effectively predict rockburst,firstly,the stress coefficient,brittleness coefficient,elastic energy index,and integrity coefficient are selected as prediction indicators,and the rockburst prediction index system is established.Secondly,based on the hierarchical analysis method(AHP),improved CRITIC method,and the distance function discriminant method for determining the integrated constant weight,the constant weight is dynamically corrected using the variable weight theory.Then,the effectiveness is introduced to modify the principle of maximum posterior probability,and a Bayesian rockburst intensity grade prediction model with variable weight is constructed.Finally,15 groups of rockburst engineering examples are selected to verify the reliability and compare the accuracy of the model,and the model is used to predict the rockburst in the middle section of the 1 000 m level of Jinchuan No.2 Mine.The research results show that the accuracy of the Bayesian rockburst prediction model with variable weight can reach 93％.The rockburst intensity grade in the middle section of the 1 000 m level of Jinchuan No.2 Mine is none to slight,and the harm of rockburst is relatively small.The prediction results are in line with the actual situation,which can provide a basis for rockburst prevention and control.
万方数据
维普
