首页|Prophet模型在话单量智能预测中的应用研究

Prophet模型在话单量智能预测中的应用研究

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对于电信运营商而言,话单量预测在业务运营、IT系统建设规划以及系统运维方面都是至关重要的一环.传统的预测方法采用以人工预测为主,程序脚本统计为辅的方式来完成,预测的准确性受人为因素影响较大,且固定的规则无法表征受到多重因素影响的话单量的变化规律,因此,需要引入人工智能模型进行话单量的动态预测.通过研究并测试常用的人工智能预测模型,采用依据业务特征改进的Prophet模型对网间结算系统的话单量进行预测,预测效果相较于传统预测方法获得了显著提升.
Research on the application of Prophet model in intelligent prediction of call volume
For telecommunications operators,call volume prediction is crucial in business operations,IT system con-struction planning,and system operation and maintenance.The traditional prediction method is mainly achieved through manual prediction,supplemented by program script statistics.The accuracy of predictions is greatly influ-enced by human factors,and fixed rules cannot represent the variation pattern of call volume affected by multiple fac-tors.Therefore,it is necessary to introduce artificial intelligence models for dynamic prediction of call volume.Com-monly used artificial intelligence prediction models were studied and tested.The Prophet model,improved based on business characteristics,was adopted for forecasting call volume of the inter-network settlement systems.The predic-tion effect has been significantly improved compared to traditional prediction.

call volume predictionProphet modeltime seriesartificial intelligence

陈勇、刘贻凤、王茵、张梦宇

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中移信息技术有限公司,广东 深圳 518048

话单量预测 Prophet模型 时间序列 人工智能

2024

电信科学
中国通信学会 人民邮电出版社

电信科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.902
ISSN:1000-0801
年,卷(期):2024.40(11)