首页|From spatio-temporal landslide susceptibility to landslide risk forecast
From spatio-temporal landslide susceptibility to landslide risk forecast
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万方数据
维普
The literature on landslide susceptibility is rich with examples that span a wide range of topics.However,the component that pertains to the extension of the susceptibility framework toward space-time mod-eling is largely unexplored.This statement holds true,particularly in the context of landslide risk,where few scientific contributions investigate risk dynamics in space and time.This manuscript proposes a modeling protocol where a dynamic landslide susceptibility is obtained via a binomial Generalized Additive Model whose inventories span nine years(from 2013 to 2021).For the analyses,the data cube is organized with a mapping unit consisting of 26,333 slope units repeated over an annual temporal unit,resulting in a total of 236,997 units.This phase already includes several interesting modeling experi-ments that have rarely appeared in the landslide literature(e.g.,variable interaction plots).However,the main innovative effort is in the subsequent phase of the protocol we propose,as we used climate pro-jections of the main trigger(rainfall)to obtain future estimates of yearly susceptibility patterns.These estimates are then combined with projections of urban settlements and associated populations to create a dynamic risk model,assuming vulnerability=1.Overall,this manuscript presents a unique example of such a modeling routine and offers a potential standard for administrations to make informed decisions regarding future urban development.
万方数据
维普
