首页|Modeling hydrological consequences of 21st-Century climate and land use/land cover changes in a mid-high latitude watershed

Modeling hydrological consequences of 21st-Century climate and land use/land cover changes in a mid-high latitude watershed

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The Naoli River Basin(NRB),a pivotal agricultural production area in China,is poised to undergo substan-tial impacts on water resources due to projected climate and land use/cover(LULC)changes.Despite its significance in the context of China's expanding farmland construction in the NRB,there exists limited research on the potential repercussions of future shifts in runoff,soil water content(SWC),and evapo-transpiration(ET)on crop productivity and water availability(both in terms of quantity and timing).This study employs future LULC maps and an ensemble of ten CMIP6 Global Climate Models(GCMs)across three scenarios to drive the well-calibrated distributed hydrological model,ESSI-3.The objective of present study is aimed on projecting hydrological consequences under climate and land use/land cover changes in near-term(2026-2050),middle-term(2051-2075),and far-term(2076-2100)future in com-parison to the baseline period of 1990-2014.Results consistently indicate an increase trend in annual average ET,runoff,and SWC in the NRB across all three future periods under the three SSP scenarios.LULC changes emerge as the primary driver influencing regional hydrological processes in the near future.Notably,under high-emission scenarios,monthly runoff and SWC are projected to significantly increase in March but decrease in April during the middle and far future periods compared to the base-line.This shift is attributed to the anticipated warming of winter and spring,leading to a transition in peak snowmelt from April to March.Concurrently,the expansion of cropland intensifies crop evapotran-spiration demand,potentially exacerbating water stress during the early stages of crop growth in April.The findings underscore the importance of addressing the substantial impacts of climate change and land use planning on regional water cycling processes.Early planning to mitigate water shortages during the initial stage of future crop growth is crucial for ensuring food security and managing water-related chal-lenges in the NRB and neighboring mid-high latitude regions.

Climate and LULC changesESSI-3Hydrological modelingSnowmeltNaoli River Basin

Chuanqi Liu、Chi Xu、Zhijie Zhang、Shengqing Xiong、Wanchang Zhang、Bo Zhang、Hao Chen、Yongxin Xu、Shuhang Wang

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Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science,Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China

International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094,China

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China

Natural Resources Aero-geophysical and Remote Sensing Centre,China Geological Survey Bureau,Beijing,China

School of Geography,Development and Environment,The University of Arizona,Tucson,AZ 85719,USA

School of Geographic and Environmental Sciences,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China

Department of Earth Sciences,University of the Western Cape,Cape Town 7535,South Africa

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National Tibetan Plateau Data CenterInter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison ProjectInnovative Research Program of the International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development GoalsMajor science and technology project of Ministry of Water Resources

CBAS2022IRP08SKS-2022008

2024

10.1016/j.gsf.2024.101819

地学前缘(英文版)
中国地质大学（北京） 北京大学

地学前缘(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.576
ISSN：1674-9871
年,卷(期)：2024.15(5)
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