Long-term daily water temperatures unveil escalating water warming and intensifying heatwaves in the Odra river Basin,Central Europe

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外文摘要：Water temperature is a critical indicator and weathervane of aquatic ecosystems.However,the vast majority of rivers lack long-term continuous and complete water temperature datasets.In this study,ensemble models by combining NARX(nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs)and air2stream were used to reconstruct daily river water temperatures for 27 hydrological stations in the Odra River Basin,one of the largest river systems in Europe.For each hydrological station,both the NARX and air2stream models were calibrated and validated,and the better-performed model was selected to reconstruct daily river water temperatures from 1985 to 2022.The results showed that hybrid modeling by combining NARX and air2stream is promising for reconstructing daily river water temper-atures.Based on the reconstructed dataset,annual and seasonal trends of water temperature and char-acteristics of river heatwaves were evaluated.The results indicated that annual river water temperatures showed a consistent warming trend over the past 40 years with an average warming rate of 0.315 ℃/decade.Seasonal river water temperatures indicated that summer warms faster,followed by autumn and spring,and winter river water temperatures showed an insignificant warming trend.River heatwaves are increased in frequency,duration,and intensity in the Odra River Basin,and 6 out of 27 hydrological stations have river heatwaves categorized as'severe'and'extreme',suggesting that mitiga-tion measures are needed to reduce the impact of climate warming on aquatic systems.Moreover,results showed that air temperature is the major controller of river heatwaves,and river heatwaves tend to intensify with the warming of air temperatures.

外文关键词：

River water temperatureEnsemble modelingAnnual variationSeasonal patternRiver heatwaves

作者：

Jiang Sun、Fabio Di Nunno、Mariusz Sojka、Mariusz Ptak、Quan Zhou、Yi Luo、Senlin Zhu、Francesco Granata

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作者单位：

College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou,China

Department of Civil and Mechanical Engineering(DICEM),University of Cassino and Southern Lazio,Via Di Biasio,43,03043,Cassino,Frosinone,Italy

Department of Land Improvement,Environmental Development and Spatial Management,Poznan University of Life Sciences,Piątkowska 94E,60 649 Poznań,Poland

Department of Hydrology and Water Management,Adam Mickiewicz University,B.Krygowskiego 10,61-680 Poznań,Poland

GIS Technology Research Center of Resource and Environment in Western China,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming,China

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出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1016/j.gsf.2024.101916

地学前缘(英文版)

中国地质大学（北京）北京大学

地学前缘(英文版)

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.576

ISSN：1674-9871

年,卷(期)：2024.15(6)