灰色马尔科夫链在低压光伏弃电量统计中的应用
Application of Grey Markov Chain in Statistics Low Voltage Photovoltaic Energy Abandonment Statistics
赵泽昆1
作者信息
- 1. 国网河南省电力公司新乡供电公司,河南新乡 453000
- 折叠
摘要
低压分布式光伏的弃电量作为区域划分和储能容量配置的重要评判依据,长期以来无法准确计算.从源网荷储系统入手,建立基于灰色马尔科夫链的低压分布式光伏弃电量统计模型,利用"天气+时间"双重场景构建状态转移矩阵,对低压分布式光伏弃电量进行统计.测试结果表明,所提方法可以较为准确地获得低压分布式光伏弃电量数据,并可将最大误差控制在5％以内,具有一定的推广价值.
Abstract
The abandoned power of low voltage distributed photovoltaics,as an important criterion for regional division and energy storage capacity configuration,has long been unable to be accurately calculated.Starting with the source network load storage system,a low-voltage distributed photovoltaic curtailment statistical model is established based on grey Markov chain.The dual scenario of"weather+time"is used to construct a state transition matrix to statistically analyze the low voltage distributed photovoltaic energy abandonment.The test results show that the proposed method can accurately obtain low voltage distributed photovoltaic energy abandonment data and control the maximum error within 5％,which has certain promotional value.
关键词
灰色马尔科夫链/低压分布式光伏/源网荷储系统/弃电量Key words
grey markov chain/low voltage distributed photovoltaics/source grid load storage system/energy abandonment引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据