Spatio-temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions and Prediction of Carbon Peak Path in Anhui Province:Based on Extended STIRPAT Model and Ridge Regression Model
Based on the dual carbon targets and spatial coupling perspective,this study employs a correction method for NPP/VIIRS night light data and develops a carbon emission model to fill in the gaps of county-level carbon emission data from 2018 to 2021 provided by CEADs.The spatiotemporal characteristics of county-level carbon emis-sions in Anhui Province are analyzed using a spatial autocorrelation model.Following the concept of"factor selection-model construction-coupling calculation-interactive influence,"this paper predicts carbon emissions under different development modes using an extended STIRPAT model and ridge regression model.Additionally,geographic detector analysis is employed to reveal the interaction among spatial driving factors of carbon emissions,providing insights for achieving peak carbon emissions reduction.The findings indicate that:(1)Carbon emissions in Anhui Province ex-hibit fluctuating trends followed by stabilization,entering a plateau period before reaching their peak after 2013.Geo-graphically,there is a decreasing trend from north to south with high-density carbon emission centers formed by major industrial cities at varying scales.(2)The projected time interval for reaching peak carbon emissions is estimated as 2030-2045,with an expected range between 447.2 million t and 555.8 million t.(3)Under the baseline scenario,Anhui's peak will occur in 2040;however,the green development scenario demonstrates an earlier and lower peak level compared to other scenarios based on comparative analysis as determined through optimization techniques.(4)Population dynamics and energy structure are identified as primary driving forces with significant enhancement effects observed through interactions between urbanization level,per capita GDP,and various driving factors.
carbon emissionsNPP/VIIRSextended STIRPAT modeldriving factorsAnhui Province
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