Land Use Change and Carbon Stock Assessment in Southern Shaanxi based on the PLUS-InVEST Model under Multiple Scenarios
This study focuses on the southern Shaanxi region,incorporating POI-driven factors into the PLUS model and using LASSO regression for driver system selection and accuracy validation.Three scenarios,namely natu-ral development,economic protection,and ecological protection,were set.After selecting the driving factors,the land-use pattern in southern Shaanxi in 2030 was simulated for each scenario.The InVEST model was then used to an-alyze the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage from 2000 to 2020,exploring the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in southern Shaanxi under different development scenarios.The results indicated:(1)From 2000 to 2020,construction land in southern Shaanxi increased from 23 648.49 hm2 to 78 000.21 hm2,encroaching on the liv-ing space of farmland,forest,and grassland,leading to respective reductions of 39 415.05 hm2,8 787.51 hm2,and 17 476.56 hm2.In 2030,under all three development scenarios,construction land continues to expand.(2)Introdu-cing POI-driven factors and using the LASSO algorithm in the PLUS model improved accuracy and operational effi-ciency,increasing the Kappa coefficient and OA coefficient by 2.53%and 0.20%,respectively.This enhancement enabled the model to simulate the distribution of construction land more accurately.(3)Carbon storage in southern Shaanxi decreased from 2.188 7×109 t in 2000 to 2.177 5×109 t in 2020.In 2030,under the three simulated sce-narios,the total carbon storage in economic protection and natural development scenarios was lower than in 2020,with the ecological protection scenario having the highest total carbon storage at2.183 0×109 t.(4)In2030,the ec-ological protection scenario is more conducive to sustainable development in southern Shaanxi.The carbon density distri-bution map can serve as a reference for regional development and carbon balance,offering insights into the impact of land-use under different scenarios on regional carbon storage and spatial planning under a dual-carbon background.
land use changePLUS modelInVEST modelLASSO regressioncarbon storagesouthern Shaanxi
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
