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中国共同富裕发展的时空演变特征及其影响因素

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基于中国2011-2020 年30 个省份的面板数据,采用纵横向拉开档次法测算各省份的共同富裕发展水平,并探究共同富裕的空间马尔可夫状态转移概率,最后运用时空地理加权回归模型探究共同富裕发展的主要影响因素.结果表明:(1)2011-2020 年我国共同富裕的发展水平呈上升态势,区域差异显著,东部的共同富裕发展水平最高,西部最低;(2)在考虑空间条件下,本省份共同富裕发展受相邻省份共同富裕发展影响而发生转移的概率各不相同,并且共同富裕的发展存在显著的时空惯性和路径依赖;(3)共同富裕发展水平的影响因素作用强度表现出明显的时空异质性,其中对外开放、数字金融水平和经济发展水平对共同富裕起促进作用,产业结构对共同富裕起抑制作用.最后,从区域差异和资源禀赋等方面提出相关建议.
Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China's Common Prosperity and Development
Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020,the development level of common prosperity is measured using the vertical and horizontal split grade method,and the Markov state transition analysis is conducted.The spatiotemporal geographical weighted regression model is used to explore the main factors affect-ing the development of common prosperity.The research findings are as follows:(1)During the inspection period,the development level of common prosperity in China shows an upward trend,but the regional differences are differ-ent.The development level of common prosperity in the east is the highest,while that in the west is the lowest;(2)When there are differences in the development of common prosperity in neighboring provinces,the probability of common prosperity development in this province being affected and shifting is different,and the development of common prosperity has significant space-time inertia and path dependence;(3)The strength of the influencing fac-tors of the development level of common prosperity shows obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity.Among them,opening up,digital finance level,and economic development level promote the development of common prosperity,while industrial structure inhibits the development of common prosperity.

common prosperityspatial analysisMarkov transition probabilityspatiotemporal geographical weighted regression

张志伟、程云鹤

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安徽理工大学 经济与管理学院,安徽 淮南 232001

共同富裕 空间分析 马尔可夫转移概率 时空地理加权回归

国家社会科学基金

2022-XBZD-09

2024

地域研究与开发
河南省科学院 地理研究所

地域研究与开发

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.698
ISSN:1003-2363
年,卷(期):2024.43(4)
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