首页|黄河流域城市数字经济与新质生产力耦合研究

黄河流域城市数字经济与新质生产力耦合研究

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黄河流域是中国高质量发展的重要实验区,数字经济和新质生产力的协同发展对于推动黄河流域经济的高质量转型具有重要意义.基于熵权法测算2011-2022 年黄河流域城市数字经济和新质生产力发展水平,使用耦合协调度模型分析二者耦合协调发展的时空演变规律,采用Moran's I分析其空间相关性,利用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2023-2028 年二者的耦合协调发展情况.结果表明:(1)黄河流域各城市数字经济发展水平、新质生产力发展水平、耦合协调度发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,且中部、东部城市优于西部;(2)黄河流域城市整体上存在一定程度的空间相关性,山东、河南部分城市表现为高-高集聚,甘肃部分城市表现为低-低集聚;(3)2022 年,郑州、济南、西安3 个城市的数字经济和新质生产力发展均已达到协调状态,未来3 个城市的耦合协调程度将进一步提高;大部分西部城市耦合协调程度仍处于失调状态且发展缓慢.
Research on Coupling of Digital Economy and New Quality Productivity in the Yellow River Basin
The Yellow River Basin serves as a critical experimental area for China's pursuit of high-quality development.The synergistic progression of the digital economy and new quality productive forces is crucial for ad-vancing the region's economic transformation towards higher quality.Based on the entropy weight method,this study calculated the levels of new quality productivity and digital economy development in the cities of the Yellow River basin from 2011 to 2022.Then analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of their coordinated development using a coupling coordination model,followed by an analysis of spatial correlation using Moran's I,and finally,the fu-ture six years of their coupled development were predicted using the GM(1,1)grey prediction model.The results show:(1)The development levels of new quality productivity,digital economy,and their coupled coordination generally exhibit an upward trend,with cities in the central and eastern regions performing better than those in the west;(2)There is a certain degree of spatial correlation among cities in the Yellow River basin,with some cities in Shandong and Henan categorized in High-High clusters,and some in Gansu in Low-Low clusters;(3)By the end of 2022,Zhengzhou,Jinan,and Xi'an had reached a state of coordination between the two systems,and their degree of coupled coordination is projected to further improve in the future.Most cities in the western part remain in a state of discoordination and are developing slowly.

new quality productivitydigital economycoupled coordinationthe Yellow River Basin

江泽茹

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北京大学 政府管理学院,北京 100871

新质生产力 数字经济 耦合协调 黄河流域

国家社会科学基金重点项目

22AZD043

2024

地域研究与开发
河南省科学院 地理研究所

地域研究与开发

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.698
ISSN:1003-2363
年,卷(期):2024.43(4)
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