首页|耕地种植结构演变的影响因素与多元路径——基于30个省份案例区的模糊集定性比较分析

耕地种植结构演变的影响因素与多元路径——基于30个省份案例区的模糊集定性比较分析

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基于模糊集定性比较分析法,分析中国30 个省份耕地种植结构演变的影响因素与多元路径.结果表明:(1)耕地"非粮化"或"趋粮化"演变是耕地稀缺性、劳动力外出务工、种粮劳动力成本、农地流转规模、种粮土地成本、农业机械化作业和农业社会化服务7 个因素联合作用的结果;(2)存在生产要素驱动型和规模局限型两条"非粮化"路径,以及耕地资源丰裕—种粮规模化和土地成本诱导—种粮规模化两条"趋粮化"子路径;(3)种粮土地成本上涨是"非粮化"的重要诱因,农业现代化生产体系是互补因素,能够缓解种粮土地成本压力对粮食种植的不利影响;(4)劳动力外出务工与农地流转规模、农业机械化作业和农业社会化服务等因素相互关联,对耕地种植结构演变发挥联动影响.
Influencing Factors and Multiple Paths of Cultivated Land Planting Structure Evolution:A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on Cases of 30 Provinces
Based on the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method,a case study of 30 provinces in China was conducted to analyze the influencing factors and multiple paths of the evolution of cultivated land planting structure.The results show that the"non-grain"or"grain-oriented"evolution of cultivated land is the result of the joint action of seven factors,including the scarcity of cultivated land,labor force going out to work,labor cost for growing grain,scale of farmland circulation,land cost for growing grain,agricultural mechanized operations and ag-ricultural socialized services.There are two"non-grain"paths driven by production factors and limited scale,and two sub-paths for large-scale"grain-oriented"induced by abundant cultivated land resources and increasing land costs.The rising land cost of grain planting is an important factor leading to"non-grain",and the modern agricul-tural production system is a complementary factor that can alleviate the adverse effects of grain planting land cost pressure on food cultivation.The impact of labor force going out for work is related to factors such as the scale of farmland circulation,agricultural mechanized operations,and agricultural socialized services,which jointly influ-ence the evolution of the cultivated land planting structure.

cultivated land planting structurenon-graingrain-orientedconfiguration pathfuzzy set quali-tative comparative analysis

宋羽、刘伟平

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福建农林大学 公共管理与法学院,福州 350002

福建农林大学 经济与管理学院,福州 350002

耕地种植结构 非粮化 趋粮化 组态路径 模糊集定性比较分析

国家社会科学基金重大招标项目福建省社会科学基金福建省社会科学规划项目福建农林大学乡村振兴研究院开放基金

16ZDA024FJ2024BF043FJ2020B101XCZX2022A02

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2024.04.020

地域研究与开发
河南省科学院 地理研究所

地域研究与开发

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.698
ISSN：1003-2363
年,卷(期)：2024.43(4)