Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Sensitivity of Industrial Structure Evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
In order to optimize the industrial structure and promote the coordinated progress of stable growth and carbon peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this paper used ridge regression to explore the emission reduction sensitivity of industrial structure evolution,screen the regulation path,predict the emission reduction potential,and verify the synergistic emission reduction effect.The results show that:(1)Increasing the proportion of the primary industry and the average labor output of the secondary and tertiary industries will help Beijing and Tianjin reach the peak ahead of time;Increasing the proportion of the secondary industry and the output per labor will help Hebei reach the peak in advance.(2)The emission reduction potential of Beijing and Hebei has been significantly im-proved after regulation,which indicates that the two places can promote growth and emission reduction in a coordi-nated manner,while Tianjin is difficult to coordinate.After 2030,the emission reduction potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region after regulation is more than 50%,indicating that the reduction of carbon intensity mainly de-pends on the evolution of industrial structure.(3)With the highly coordinated evolution of industries in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the trend of industrial coordination is significant,and the carbon emissions from energy con-sumption show an inverted"U"trend.
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