摘要
地缘政治学视角下的海运不再只是一种微观经济活动,而是维持世界联系和资源流动的历史发展条件.基于此视角,从"国家—通道—要塞"3 个维度构建海运地缘政治风险的理论分析框架.通过该框架评估中国资源海运地缘政治风险,发现油气、铁矿石、钴、镍、大豆、玉米、小麦等多种关键资源正面临严峻的风险形势.国家维度上,多种资源海运依赖少数国家或集聚中东地区;通道维度上,必经中东、南海等多个地缘政治关键地带,且中东航线的全线风险最高;要塞维度上,马六甲海峡的风险强度最高,其次是汇集中东地区的曼德海峡、苏伊士运河、霍尔木兹海峡,美国军事基地的分布能够影响主要要塞.为应对海运地缘政治风险,中国应进一步优化资源海运安全治理策略,强化风险的多维研判,加紧关键通道基础设施合作,并持续提升国家参与全球治理的综合实力.
Abstract
From a geopolitical perspective,global shipping is no longer a microeconomic activity,but a his-torical development condition for maintaining world connections and resource flows.Accordingly,a theoretical re-search framework has been constructed from three dimensions"country,routes,and chokepoints".Further empiri-cal analysis reveals that key resources face significant risks.Various resources rely on a few countries or the Middle East.Shipping must pass through key geopolitical regions,with the Middle East routes presenting prominent risks.Major chokepoints are identified as high-risk area,where U.S.military bases exert strategic influence.The re-search then proposes countermeasures for governing geopolitical risks in resource shipping.
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