Multi-scenario Simulation of Population-Land-Industry Coupling and Coordinated Development of Rural Area System in China
The key issue to promoting rural revitalization was exploring the scientific path for the integrated and harmonious development of the rural territorial system in the future.On the basis of having combed the theories of rural territorial systems,the paper built a coupled and coordinated evaluation model of China's rural territorial systems,constructed a system dynamics model of rural territories,and simulated the rural development scenarios under different shared socioeconomic pathways during the period of 2021-2070.The results showed that the de-gree of coupled coordination of the rural territorial system was expected to steadily increase in the future,and the scores of the population and industry subsystems were predicted to grow faster than those of the land subsystem,which was the key to determining the coupled and coordinated development of the system.Continuing the current development path could have maintained a high economic growth rate and urbanization level,but the high economic growth rate would have brought a greater threat to the protection of arable land,resources,and the environment,and the coordinated development of people-land-industry would have faced challenges.The SSP1 path of sustain-able development was considered to be the best choice for China's rural territorial system to move towards a high level of coupled coordination.The study suggests that,for future development,it is necessary to actively improve the education level of the rural population and steadily promote the high-quality development of urbanization;to promote the reduction of rural construction land and the exponential growth of the arable land per worker in national land spatial planning;and to unswervingly follow the path of sustainable development and promote the coordinated development of people-land-industry in the countryside.
rural territorial systemspopulation-land-industrycoupled and coordinated developmentmulti-scenario simulationrural geography
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
