首页|中国经济增长的动力溯源:人口红利还是教育红利?

中国经济增长的动力溯源:人口红利还是教育红利?

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在全面建设现代化产业体系过程中,充分挖掘人口资源优势对中国经济转型的影响作用至关重要.文章利用中国 30 个省份的面板数据,实证分析了 2000-2021 年劳动要素在中国经济中的贡献作用与门槛特征.结果表明:在中国经济增长过程中,人口红利与教育红利长期存在,教育红利一直是促进中国经济增长的主要动力因素;而在产业结构变迁过程中,人口红利的波动特征更为明显,人口红利与教育红利随着产业合理化水平的提升而减弱,随着产业高级化的推进而增强.由此提出,要在优化产业结构的同时稳定人口增长速度,促进教育人力资本的持续提升以及农村劳动力的合理流动.
The Impetus of the Economic Growth in China:The Demographic Dividend or Educational Dividend?
In the process of comprehensively building a modern industrial system,it is very important to fully tap the advantages of population resources to influence China's economic transformation.Using panel data from 30 provinces in China,this paper empirically analyzes the contribution and thresh-old characteristics of labor factors in China's economy from 2000 to 2021.The results show that:in the process of China's economic growth,the de-mographic dividend and the educational dividend exist for a long time,and the educational dividend has been the main driving force to promote China's economic growth;in the process of industrial structure change,the fluctuation characteristics of demographic dividend are more obvious.Demographic dividend and educational dividend weaken with the improvement of industrial rationalization level,and increase with the advancement of industrial up-grading.Therefore,it is proposed to stabilize the population growth rate while optimizing the industrial structure,promote the continuous improvement of educational human capital and the reasonable flow of rural labor force.

population dividendeducational dividendeconomic growthchanges in industrial structure

黄晋生

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齐鲁师范学院 经济与管理学院, 山东 济南 250200

喀什大学 数学与统计学院, 新疆 喀什 844000

人口红利 教育红利 经济增长 产业结构变迁

山东省社会科学规划青年项目喀什大学南疆教育发展研究中心项目

23DJYJ062023HX0307

2024

当代经济管理
石家庄经济学院

当代经济管理

CHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.859
ISSN:1673-0461
年,卷(期):2024.46(6)
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