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非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究

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近年来,非常规突发事件频发,由于其自身具有不可预测性、复杂性和小概率事件等特点,常规的“预测-应对”模式已经难以有效地应对非常规突发事件,“情景-应对”是应对非常规突发事件的基本范式,基于此,对情景及情景-应对理论的研究已成为非常规突发事件应急管理领域中的研究热点,通过对现有文献的梳理,展开综述研究,为未来非常规突发事件应急管理研究奠定了基础。
Review on the Scenario and Scenario-Response Theory for Unconventional Emergency Management
In recent years, unconventional emergencies occur frequently. Due to its characteristics of unpredictability, complexity, and small probability events, conventional "Prediction - response" model has been difficult to effectively deal with unconventional emergencies."scenario-response"is a basic paradigm to deal with unconventional emergencies. Based on this background, research on scenario and scenario-response theory of unconventional emergencies has become a hot point in the areas of emergency management. Review on present literatures can sort out the direction of future research and it plays a positive role in promoting the work in unconventional emergency management.

unconventional emergenciesunconventional emergency managementscenarioscenario-response theory

刘樑、许欢、李仕明

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西南科技大学 绵阳 621010

电子科技大学 成都 610054

非常规突发事件 应急管理 情景 情景-应对理论

91224001SR13B05

2013

电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)
电子科技大学

电子科技大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.386
ISSN:1008-8105
年,卷(期):2013.(6)
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