[Objective]Determining the rainfall threshold is of great significance in controlling the risk of rainfall-induced landslides.[Methods]A total of 98 rainfall-induced landslides in Quzhou,Zhejiang Province,were used to study the rainfall threshold.Based on the statistical analysis of the rainfall data from 1970 to 2019,the rainfall threshold models established by the I-D,E-D and E-I curves are compared and analyzed.Subsequently,a land-slide meteorological warning double-index model with daily rainfall R0 and 5-day effective rainfall R5 as warning in-dices was established based on the I-D model.Finally,the rationality and reliability of the model were confirmed u-sing historical rainfall and landslide data.[Results]The results show that:(1)I-D is better than E-D and E-I in predicting rainfall-induced landslides;(2)The double-index model reasonably forecasts the average annual warn-ing times of red,orange and yellow landslides in Quzhou,which are 1.5,3.2 and 9.3,respectively;20 landslides can be accurately predicted by the double-index model,of which 15 landslides are red and orange,and the model has successfully predicted all eight landslides in 2014;(3)The 7 hysteretic landslides used to test the prediction a-bility of the model all fell into the warning area,including 3 orange,3 yellow and 1 blue events.[Conclusion]The results proposed in this paper are helpful for the meteorological warning of landslides in Quzhou and provide new methods for government risk assessment and management.
维普
万方数据