地质科技通报2024,Vol.43Issue(3) :227-239.DOI:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306

新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide

李钰 陈明亮 黄会宝 蒋楠 吕鹏飞 周家文
地质科技通报2024,Vol.43Issue(3) :227-239.DOI:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306

新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide

李钰 1陈明亮 2黄会宝 3蒋楠 2吕鹏飞 3周家文2
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司,贵阳 550081;四川大学水利水电学院,成都 610065
  • 2. 四川大学水利水电学院,成都 610065
  • 3. 国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司,成都 610065
  • 折叠

摘要

为揭示四川省泸定县新华滑坡在水库蓄水、库水位波动以及季节性降雨综合作用下的变形演化规律,探讨其在多因素耦合作用下滑坡岩土体强度劣化的渐进累积效应.基于对水电工程库区新华滑坡的现场调查及多源长序列监测数据分析,并结合滑坡累计位移-时间(S-t)曲线3阶段演化特征与新华滑坡实测S-t曲线,对该滑坡3个阶跃性变形周期的演化阶段进行了判识与划分,同时采用改进的切线角方法进行了计算与分析,构建了以改进切线角预警阈值为依据的新华滑坡分级预警定量划分标准.研究结果表明,水库蓄水初期水位的短期大幅度上升、水库运行期的水位快速下降及季节性强降雨影响是新华滑坡变形加速的主要诱因.根据分析与探讨,改进切线角预警阈值能在一定程度上为辨别新华滑坡现阶段的稳定状态与潜在风险提供指导,但仍应考虑多重预警指标并综合滑坡体宏观变形破坏迹象进行判定.

Abstract

[Objective]To reveal the deformation evolution of the Xinhua landslide in Luding County,Sichuan Province under the comprehensive effects of reservoir impoundment,reservoir water level fluctuations and seasonal rainfall,and to explore the progressive cumulative effect of the strength degradation of the landslide rock and soil mass under the coupling of multiple factors.[Methods]In this paper,based on a field investigation and multi-source long sequence monitoring data analysis of the Xinhua landslide in the reservoir area of the hydropower pro-ject,combined with the three-stage evolution characteristics of the landslide cumulative deformation-time(S-t)curve and the measured S-t curve of the Xinhua landslide,the evolution stages of the three-step deformation cycles of the Xinhua landslide are identified and divided.At the same time,the improved tangent angle method is used for calculation and analysis,and a quantitative classification standard for Xinhua landslide classification early warning based on the improved displacement tangent angle early warning threshold is constructed.[Results]The results show that the short-term large increase of water level during the initial impoundment period,the rapid decrease of water level during the reservoir operation period and the influence of seasonal heavy rainfall are the main factors to accelerate the deformation of the Xinhua landslide.[Conclusion]According to the analysis and discussion,the improved displacement tangent angle early warning threshold can provide guidance for identifying the current stabili-ty state and potential risks of the Xinhua landslide to a certain extent,but multiple early warning indicators should still be considered,and the signs of macroscopic deformation and failure of landslides should be integrated for judgement.

关键词

库区滑坡/水位波动/变形监测/演化规律/预警判据/四川新华滑坡

Key words

reservoir landslide/water level fluctuation/deformation monitoring/evolution law/early warning cri-terion/Xinhua landslide in Sichuan Province

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基金项目

国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金(U2240221)

国家自然科学基金面上项目(41977229)

出版年

2024
地质科技通报
中国地质大学(武汉)

地质科技通报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.018
ISSN:2096-8523
参考文献量17
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