[Objective]With the rapid development of China's transportation industry,the geological conditions encountered in highway construction are becoming increasingly complex.Tunnels,owing to their ability to traverse mountainous terrain,are widely used in highway projects through challenging geological environments.However,as the number of tunnel projects has increased,the frequency of rock collapses and landslides during highway tunnel construction has also risen,resulting in significant economic losses and casualties.Therefore,accurate risk assess-ments have become crucial in tunnel engineering.[Methods]To address this,40 cases of instability engineering were summarized and analyzed,refining 14 secondary indicators and establishing a comprehensive risk assessment index system.Risk was then assessed in terms of disaster probability and its consequences.The interpretive struc-tural modeling(ISM)method was employed to construct a hierarchical topology diagram,and a Bayesian network model was established and refined using a causality graph method.The model was trained on 80％of the case data and validated with the remaining 20％.Based on this,the highway tunnel instability risk assessment Bayesian net-work evaluation system(RIAS)was independently developed,offering both engineering applicability and user-friendly functionality,and enabling accurate and rapid assessments of surrounding rock instability during highway tunnel construction.[Results]The system was applied to sections such as ZK5+937～ZK5+917 of the Beigushan Tunnel,predicting an 18.2％probability of tunnel instability with a"None(no risk)"magnitude of instability and a risk level of"Low Ⅰ"-consistent with the actual excavation results.[Conclusion]This study introduces and in-novative approach by constructing a Bayesian network model tailored for highway tunnel risk assessments,overco-ming the limitations of single-risk-level models and the challenge of insufficient engineering datasets.The model is successfully tested in the Beigushan Tunnel and holds significant potential for application in other highway tunnel projects,enhancingsafety and risk prediction capabilities.
关键词
贝叶斯网络模型/风险评估/ISM法/快速评估/系统开发/公路隧道/围岩失稳
Key words
Bayesian network model/risk assessment/ISM method/rapid assessment/system development/high-way tunnel/surrounding rock instability
维普
万方数据