摘要
为分析城镇燃气管道泄漏灾害演化过程,通过收集城镇燃气管道泄漏典型事故案例进行统计分析,结合灾害链及复杂网络理论,构建了城镇燃气管道泄漏灾害链,并将其转化成复杂网络拓扑结构图,分析其关键节点和关键边.结果表明:城镇燃气管道泄漏灾害链可分为灾害演化前期、灾害演化中期和灾害演化后期,通过破坏火灾、爆炸、建筑物倒塌、相邻管线受损、管道泄漏、社会公共事件、企业停产、人员伤亡等关键节点或者切断管道泄漏→爆炸、管道泄漏→火灾、相邻管线受损→供气设备损坏、道路破坏→交通瘫痪、爆炸→相邻管线受损等关键边,可有效破坏或切断城镇燃气管道泄漏灾害链的网络传播路径.该研究结果可为城镇燃气管道泄漏灾害事件应急处置和断链减灾提供科学依据.
Abstract
In order to analyze the evolution process of urban gas pipeline leakage disaster,by collecting typi-cal accident cases of urban gas pipeline leakage for statistical analysis,combined with the disaster chain and complex network theory,the urban gas pipeline leakage disaster chain was constructed,which was trans-formed into a complex network topology structure diagram,and its key nodes and key edges were analyzed.The results show that the urban gas pipeline leakage disaster chain can be divided into three stages,name-ly,the early,middle and late stages of disaster evolution.Urban network propagation path of gas pipeline leakage disaster chain can be effectively damaged or cut off by destroying key nodes such as fire,explosion,building collapse,adjacent pipeline damage,pipeline leakage,social public events,enterprise production sus-pension,and casualties,or cutting off key edges such as pipeline leakage→explosion,pipeline leakage→fire,adjacent pipeline damage→gas supply equipment damage,road damage→traffic paralysis,explosion→adja-cent pipeline damage.The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the emergency treatment of urban gas pipeline leakage disasters and the disconnection of chain disaster reduction.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3011300)
维普
万方数据