Surficial Solar Irradiation Prediction Based on Meteorological Monitoring Combined with Ground-Based Cloud Images
PV output power forecasting is based on high accuracy solar irradiation prediction.Cloud shielding is the primary reason lead-ing to solar irradiation fluctuation.Aiming to solve the problem of prediction accuracy descending in complicated climate conditions due to the insufficient ability of extracting temporal variation feature of Ground-Based Cloud image in related works,a novel solar irradiation prediction method is presented.3D CNN is used to extract features in single GBC image and temporal variation features in GBC image series at the same time and the relationship between GBC image feature and solar irradiance attenuation by cloud is established.The evaluation results of experiments show that,in complicated climate conditions,the RMSE of 5 minutes ahead prediction is improved by 8%for the proposed method compared with existing works.The proposed method has high promotion value.
ground-based cloud imagefeature extraction3D CNNsolar irradiance attenuationPV output power prediction
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
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