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论俄罗斯反金融制裁的成效和局限

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2022年年初,美国和欧盟对俄罗斯实施了史无前例的金融制裁.为了稳定国内金融市场,俄罗斯采取了一系列反制裁措施.分析这些反制裁措施的成效与局限能够帮助其他国家积累应对金融制裁的经验.跟踪2021~2024年俄罗斯金融市场各项指标的变动趋势,能够发现俄罗斯反制裁措施的短期成效和长期局限及其背后的原因.这些成效和局限在外汇市场、信贷市场和证券市场上均有体现.其中,短期成效包括稳定卢布汇率和国际储备、保障银行和企业的资金流动、规避中小企业信贷风险、维持证券价格水平;长期局限包括未能根本缓解卢布贬值和国际储备减少的压力,天然气卢布结算效力下降,加息对信贷市场具有长期负面影响,优惠贷款无法降低企业偿债难度和提高企业运营能力,股票价值未能恢复到制裁前水平,限制证券海外交易不利于证券市场长期发展.该文在对此进行研究的基础上,形成以下关于反金融制裁的理论性思考:反金融制裁要与反贸易制裁并行,实施的具体措施要有灵活性,强化本币结算的作用,重视多边金融合作等.
Russia has adopted a series of counter-sanctions measures in order to stabilize its domestic markets in response to financial sanctions imposed by the US and the EU since the beginning of 2022.Tracing the movements of Russia's financial markets indicators 2021 through 2024 is conducive to figuring out both short-run effectiveness and long-term limitations observable in exchange,credit and securities markets.A general conclusion can be drawn on basis of the aforementioned studies,i.e.,the necessity of synchronizing counter-sanctions measures with counter-trade ones and of enhancing the role of international settlements with domestic currency,flexibility required in the concrete implementation of the countermeasures,and the importance attached to multilateral financial cooperation.

Russiafinancesanctionsanti-sanctionsRussia-Ukraine conflict

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黑龙江大学俄罗斯语言文学与文化研究中心

俄罗斯 金融 制裁 反制裁 俄乌冲突

2024

欧亚经济
俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所

欧亚经济

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.585
ISSN:1671-8453
年,卷(期):2024.(5)