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面向山区村落的暴雨山洪临灾风险预评估方法研究

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针对现有暴雨山洪灾害评估方法时效性不足,承灾体精细化程度较低以及山区通常缺乏水文资料等问题,以福建省宁德市下党村为例,集成元胞自动机模型和分布式水文模型开发了暴雨山洪过程模拟软件.在该软件中输入降雨、数字高程模型等易获取的数据,即可计算得到具有一定精度的淹没水深、淹没流速等动态数据.在此基础上,从暴雨山洪灾害危险性和承灾体易损性两个方面构建了下党村暴雨山洪灾害临灾风险评估指标体系,基于高分辨率遥感影像和实地调研建立精细化承灾体数据库,评估得到了高精度的下党村暴雨山洪灾害危险性、易损性和临灾风险预评估系列图.研究结果表明,在给定的该区 200 年一遇暴雨情景下,下党村9.85%的区域为高风险区,其中包括房屋20 栋,路段26 处,这些都是旅游与居住人口集中的沿河地段.本方法可为山区村落的暴雨山洪灾害临灾风险快速评估与进一步面向承灾体对象的精细化预警提供科学依据和技术参考.
Research on the Pre-assessment Methodology of Flash Flood Risk for Mountain Villages
Aiming at the problems of insufficient timeliness of torrential rainfall and flash flood disaster assessment methods,low degree of refinement of the disaster-bearing body and the usual lack of hydrological data in mountainous areas,the simulation software of torrential rainfall and flash flood process was developed by integrating the cellular automata model and distributed hydrological model in the case of Xiadang village in Ningde,Fujian Province.By inputting the easy-to-access data such as rainfall and digital elevation model in the software,the dynamic data such as inundation depth and inundation flow rate can be computed with a certain degree of accuracy.In this software,the dynamic data such as water depth and inundation flow rate can be calculated with certain accuracy by inputting rainfall and digital elevation model.Based on that,the index system for assessing the risk of torrential flash floods in Xiadang Village was constructed from the aspects of torrential flash flood hazard and vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body,and a refined database of the disaster-bearing body was established based on high-resolution remote sensing images and field research.A series of maps of the torrential flash flood hazard,vulnerability,and the pre-assessment of the risk of the disaster in Xiadang Village were obtained with a high degree of accuracy.The results show that under the given scenario of a 200-year rainstorm in the district,9.85%of the area of Xiadang Village is a high-risk zone,including 20 houses and 26 road sections,which are along the river with a concentration of tourist and residential population.This methodogoly could provide a scientific basis and technical reference for the rapid assessment of the risk of torrential flash floods in moun-tainous villages,as well as further refined early warning for disaster-bearing objects.

mountain villageheavy rainfall flash floodsdisaster alertrisk pre-assessmentdigital village

卢逖中、潘航、黄潇、苏同华、张明锋、林广发

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福建师范大学 地理科学学院、碳中和未来技术学院, 福州 350117

福建省气候中心,福州 350025

福建师范大学 福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心, 福州 350117

山区村落 暴雨山洪灾害 临灾预警 风险预评估 数字乡村

福建省自然科学基金项目福建省公益类科技重点项目福建省数字乡村气象示范项目

2022J011802021R1002006DH-1956

2024

亚热带资源与环境学报
福建师范大学

亚热带资源与环境学报

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.425
ISSN:1673-7105
年,卷(期):2024.19(1)
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