摘要
在对农户增收影响因素进行理论分析的基础上,以福建闽北地区18个村804个农户为研究对象,建立多元Logit模型对农户增收的主要影响因素进行实证检验.结果表明:农户年人均收入情况的主要影响因素包括家庭成员16岁以下人数、家庭需赡养老人人口数、农户对于增收的意愿、是否创业或者在外务工、是否加入农村合作社、家庭参与土地流转情况、产业政策支持与否、当地银行贷款便捷程度等8个变量.结合模型结果,通过问卷4类变量对增收潜力的影响,整体分析农户增收现状以及对未来增收潜力进行预判.最后提出加快推进土地流转、解决粮食生产和增收矛盾、构建农业技能培训体系、加大支农惠农力度等对策.
Abstract
Based on theoretical analysis of the influencing factors of farmers'income increase,this paper establishes a multivariate Logit model empirically to test the main influencing factors of farmers'income increase by taking 804 farmers from 18 villages in northern Fujian Province as the research objects.The results show that:the main influencing factors of farmers'annual per capita income include 8 variables such as the number of family members under 16 years old,the number of elderly people who need to be supported in the family,farmers'willingness to increase income,farmers'willingness to start a business or work outside,farmers'willingness to join rural cooperatives,family's willingness to participate in land transfer,farmers'willingness to support industrial policies and the convenience of local bank loans.Based on the model results and the impact of four types of variables on income growth potentiality in the ques-tionnaire,this paper comprehensively analyzes the current situation of income growth for farmers and pre-dicts their future income growth potentiality.Finally,this paper proposes the suggestions to accelerate land transfer,solve the contradiction between grain production and income increase,build an agricultural skills training system,and increase support and benefits for agriculture.
基金项目
福建省社会科学基金规划项目(FJ2021B033)
万方数据