The precipitation affects the development of the industries,such as the agriculture and animal husbandry.In recent years,the Mann-Kendall(M-K)mutation test became the major technique to analyze the mutations in the precipitation data.In this paper,we aim to propose a new technique of the mutation detection for the precipitation data.The Bayesian estimation algorithm is used to analyze the mutation of the annual mean precipitation events in Fujian,Hainan,Guizhou,Henan,Heilongjiang Province,and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1960 to 2016.The accumulative precipitation event in this paper represents the number of year when the annual mean precipitation is higher than its mean in some specified period.Assuming that the accumulative precipitation event sequence follows a Poisson process,we analyze the mutation by determining whether the intensity function contains a change-point.The results show that,a mutation exists in the provinces analyzed except the Henan province.Guizhou,Inner Mongolia,and Heilongjiang provinces have obvious mutation,accompanied with the risk of alternating drought and water-logging.Based on the results,we propose the corresponding suggestions,such as strengthening water conservancy project,improving the intelligent management platform for water resources and the underground water-storing system,for the previous provinces.
关键词
降水事件/变点/泊松过程/贝叶斯估计算法/年均降水量数据
Key words
precipitation events/change-point/Poisson processes/Bayesian estimation algorithm/annual mean precipitation data
维普
万方数据