Based on the Wave Loss Data published on the website of the China Ocean Disaster Bulletin,multiple extreme models are introduced to fit and evaluate the risk.All of these extreme models show higher tail risks than observations,resulting in higher expected losses.With the maximum limitation of liability of single insured event,tail risk is well controlled so that the expectations return to a reasonable range.Therefore,it is inferred that there is more uncertainty of marine disaster with catastrophe probability,which requires completed regulation norms and necessary government relief whenever insurance market is introduced.
关键词
海浪灾害/极值理论/在险价值/损失拟合
Key words
wave disaster/extreme theory/value at risk/loss fitting
维普
万方数据