Study on long-term collision probability of MEO constellation based on spatial density
Considering that there will be more and more satellites in MEO area in the future,it is necessary to carry out research on the long-term evolution of disposal orbits and collision probability to insure the operational safety.Firstly,MEO space debris status and international guidelines were listed in this paper.Then,based on the equation of special density and long-term collision probabil-ity,in-depth study was carried out on the collision probability posed to operational constellation,nearby constellations and graveyard orbit by MEO satellites with different disposal strategy.The re-search indicates that the stable and unstable disposal strategy would be proposed for MEO satellites by the collision probability analysis.The collision probability posed to operational orbit or graveyard orbit is of a 10-5～10-6 order of magnitude,which is less than the 10-3 threshold for LEO crossing objects.It indicates that the current operational status of MEO region is safe.
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