基于空间密度的MEO星座长期碰撞风险研究
Study on long-term collision probability of MEO constellation based on spatial density
周静 1杨慧1
作者信息
- 1. 北京空间飞行器总体设计部,北京 100094
- 折叠
摘要
考虑到中轨道(MEO)区域将要部署越来越多的卫星,为确保星座的长期运行安全,有必要针对卫星离轨带来的长期碰撞风险问题开展研究.首先,列出了 MEO区域的空间物体分布现状与国际规则;然后,以空间密度和长期碰撞风险等数学模型为基础,开展了不同离轨策略的MEO卫星带来的长期碰撞风险分析.研究表明:开展卫星离轨后的长期碰撞风险分析,对于MEO卫星离轨策略的确定具有明确的指导意义;MEO卫星离轨与自身星座、邻近星座以及坟墓轨道200年内碰撞风险在10-5～10-6量级,小于低轨(LEO)卫星的10-3的碰撞风险阈值,当前MEO区域的空间物体运行是安全的.
Abstract
Considering that there will be more and more satellites in MEO area in the future,it is necessary to carry out research on the long-term evolution of disposal orbits and collision probability to insure the operational safety.Firstly,MEO space debris status and international guidelines were listed in this paper.Then,based on the equation of special density and long-term collision probabil-ity,in-depth study was carried out on the collision probability posed to operational constellation,nearby constellations and graveyard orbit by MEO satellites with different disposal strategy.The re-search indicates that the stable and unstable disposal strategy would be proposed for MEO satellites by the collision probability analysis.The collision probability posed to operational orbit or graveyard orbit is of a 10-5～10-6 order of magnitude,which is less than the 10-3 threshold for LEO crossing objects.It indicates that the current operational status of MEO region is safe.
关键词
中轨道/倾斜地球同步轨道/离轨/碰撞风险Key words
MEO/IGSO/de-orbit disposal/collision probability引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据