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贸易政策不确定性对外向型企业内销影响研究

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基于贸易政策不确定性的视角,利用 2010-2020 年中国制造业外向型上市企业数据和贸易政策不确定性指数,研究贸易政策不确定性对制造业外向型企业内销的影响作用及其机制.结果表明:贸易政策不确定性对外向型企业内销存在显著正向影响作用;贸易政策不确定性上升通过提升企业创新能力、增加融资约束和提高市场交易成本显著促进企业内销规模扩张;贸易政策不确定性上升对于低生产率、小规模及劳动密集型的外向型企业内销规模扩张的促进作用更大.因此,在构建双循环新发展格局的背景下,政府部门应当密切关注国内外市场的变化情况,加强对外向型企业国内市场开拓的政策支持和引导,通过补贴、税收优惠等措施激励企业创新,同时加大银行信贷支持力度、规范制度水平等为企业发展提供良好的投融资和公平有序的营商环境.外向型企业应加强国内市场的开发力度,当外部不确定上升时合理制定国内外销售决策以更好地规避风险,同时增加创新投入提升自身实力和国际竞争力,实现出口升级以抵御外部风险.
On the Influence of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Domestic Sales of Export-oriented Enterprises
Based on the perspective of trade policy uncertainty,using the data of China's manufactur-ing export-oriented listed enterprises and the trade policy uncertainty index from 2010 to 2020,the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the domestic sales of export-oriented manufacturing enterprises and its mech-anism is studied.The results show that:trade policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the domestic sales of export-oriented enterprises;rising trade policy uncertainty significantly promotes the expansion of domestic sales of enterprises through enhancing the innovation ability of enterprises,increasing the financing constraints,and raising the market transaction costs;and rising trade policy uncertainty promotes the expansion of domestic sales even more for low productivity,small-scale and labor-intensive export-oriented enterprises.Therefore,in the context of building a new development pattern of double-cycle,government departments should pay close attention to the changes in domestic and foreign markets,provide more policy support and guidance for the development of the domestic market of export-oriented enterprises,stimulate enterprise innovation through subsidies,tax incentives and other measures,and at the same time,provide more bank credit support and regulate the system level to provide a good investment and financing environment and a fair and orderly business environment for the development of the enter-prise.Export-oriented enterprises should also strengthen their domestic market development,so that when external uncertainty rises,they can make reasonable domestic sales decisions as well as export-oriented ones to avoid risk better.They should also increase investment in innovation to achieve export upgrading to resist external risks by enhancing their strength and international competitiveness.

trade policy uncertaintyexport-oriented enterprisesdomestic sales

刘秀玲、赵冉冉

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福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州 350108

贸易政策不确定性 外向型企业 内销

福建省社会科学基金规划一般项目

FJ2022B150

2024

福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
福州大学

福州大学学报(哲学社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.516
ISSN:1002-3321
年,卷(期):2024.38(2)
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