随着全球碳中和目标的提出,各个国家和地区对于碳排预测与管理需求日益增加.在此背景下,基于能源-经济-环境(Energy-Economic-Environment,3E)协同分析理论,提出一个地区碳排综合分析框架——能源-经济-环境-碳排(Energy-Economic-Environment-Emission,EEEE)框架(又称 4E框架),通过分解地区碳排因素、核算碳排总量,谋划多重目标及约束下的碳达峰路径,从而支持地区能源系统与碳排管理,服务政府决策.算例立足福建省域,基于福建省"十四五"能源发展专项规划、福建省统计年鉴等实际数据,建立 4E框架下的长期能源替代规划系统(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System,LEAP)模型,计算并分析 4E因素影响下行业部门能源消费与碳排总量,为低碳发展路径提供指导.4E框架融合地区能源消耗模式、经济发展规模与环境结构变迁等因素,实现对碳排路径的监测和优化,更好地服务于地区碳排减缓策略的制定和执行,助力我国乃至全球应对气候变化挑战.
Research on Low-carbon Path Considering the Coordination within Energy-Economy-Environment-Emission
With the proposal of global carbon neutrality,the demand for carbon emission prediction and management across various regions is increasing drastically.Based on the Energy-Economic-Environ-ment(3E)theory,this paper proposes a regional analysis framework for carbon emission trajectory depiction under 3E indicators:Energy-Economic-Environment-Emission framework,i.e.4E framework.The 4E framework decomposes the root factors of regional carbon emissions,accounts for the total carbon emissions,and plans the path to carbon peak under multiple objective constraints which supports the management of regional energy systems and carbon emissions and government decision-making.Case study of Fujian province based on its plans on developing energy technologies and statistic yearbooks is conducted to calculate and analyze the energy consumption and carbon emissions of various sectors under 4E framework,which provides valuable insight for suitable regional low-carbon development path.The 4E framework's integration of economic scale,structural changes,and energy consumption patterns enables effective monitoring and optimization of carbon emission trajectories.This approach significantly aids in the develop-ment and implementation of regional carbon emission reduction strategies,thereby contributing to the global effort to address climate change challenges.
4E frameworkcarbon accountingcarbon trading marketdecarbonization
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