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突发事件下粮食股市的抗毁性及预警研究

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为探究不同类突发事件对粮食网络抗毁性能的影响,以2019年新冠疫情、2021年郑州暴雨和2022年新冠变异毒株袭击上海3个突发事件为研究背景,采用格兰杰因果检测法构建粮食股票关联网络;通过对不同时期网络拓扑特征、节点重要性和抗毁性能的分析发现在面对整体或者局部突发事件的侵袭过程中,粮食关联网络内部结构会随着冲击程度产生一定的有效调节,占据主导作用的节点根据地理位置因素形成快捷有效的应援模式,对这些粮食供应重要节点的维系和保护往往是重点.攻击仿真结果显示,蓄意攻击迫害性比随机攻击更强,第2阶段的粮食关联网络遭受瓦解速度最为迅速,第3、4阶段抗毁性能不稳定程度更大.最后,在粮食股市运用的CUSUM控制图预警效果也较好.
Research on the Resistance and Early Warning of the Grain Stock Market Under Emergencies
In order to study the impact of different types of emergencies including COVID-19,July 20 Heavy rainstorm in Zhengzhou and variant strains of the new coronavirus attacked Shanghai in 2022 on the performance of food network security,the Grainger causal detection method was used to construct four different stages of food stock correlation network.Through the analysis of the network topology characteristics,node importance and anti-destruction performance in the three periods,it is found that in the process of facing the invasion of overall or local emergencies,the internal structure of the food-related network will be effectively adjusted with the degree of impact,and the nodes that occupy the leading role form a fast and effective response mode ac-cording to geographical factors,and the maintenance and protection of these important nodes of food supply is often the focus.The attack simulation results show that deliberate attacks are more persecutive than random attacks,and the food related networks in the second stage are dis-integrated most rapidly,and the anti-destruction performance of the third and fourth stages is more unstable.Finally,the early warning effect of CUSUM control chart used in the grain stock market is also well reflected.

grain correlation networkmajor emergenciesinvulnerabilityCUSUM algorithm

刘建刚、陈芦霞

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湖南工商大学理学院,长沙 410205

湖南工商大学统计学习与智能计算湖南省重点实验室,长沙 410205

粮食关联网络 突发事件 抗毁性 CUSUM算法

湖南省教育厅科研基金项目

22B0612

2024

复杂系统与复杂性科学
青岛大学

复杂系统与复杂性科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.798
ISSN:1672-3813
年,卷(期):2024.21(2)