首页|具有媒体效应的分数阶SAIQR传染病模型

具有媒体效应的分数阶SAIQR传染病模型

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为探究Omicron新冠病毒的传播机理,预测疫情发展趋势,建立一类具有媒体效应的Capu-to-conformable 分数阶SAIQR新冠肺炎传染病模型.分析模型的基本再生数、平衡点、稳定性等动力学行为,利用真实数据和非线性最小二乘方法拟合模型参数,并对参数进行敏感性分析.仿真结果表明,媒体效应参数对感染人数的降低起重要作用,调节两个分数参数相比于调节单个参数使模型数值解拥有更大的自由度.
A Fractional-order SAIQR Epidemic Model with Media Effects
In order to explore the transmission mechanism of Omicron COVID-19 and predict the epidemic trend,a Caputo-conformable fractional-order SAIQR epidemic model with media effects is established.The basic reproduction number,equilibrium points,stability and other dynamic behaviors of the model are analyzed.The model parameters are fitted by nonlinear least squares with real data and we performed sensitivity analysis of parameters.The numerical simulation re-sults indicate that the media effects parameters play an important role in reducing the number of infected individuals.Adjusting two fractional parameters gives the model numerical solution greater freedom compared to adjusting a single parameter.

SAIQR epidemic modelcaputo-conformable fractional-ordermedia effectssensitivi-ty analysis

胡行华、刘盈月

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辽宁工程技术大学理学院,辽宁阜新 123000

SAIQR传染病模型 Caputo-conformable分数阶 媒体效应 敏感性分析

教育部人文社科规划基金辽宁省社科学规划基金辽宁省社科联规划基金

21YJCZH204L22BGL02820221slwtkt-069

2024

复杂系统与复杂性科学
青岛大学

复杂系统与复杂性科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.798
ISSN:1672-3813
年,卷(期):2024.21(2)