首页|分红波动程度对股价演化特征的影响分析

分红波动程度对股价演化特征的影响分析

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为探讨分红波动程度对股价演化特征的影响,构建了异质投资者资产定价模型,通过理论推导、数值模拟和实证检验方法进行了分析.研究结果表明:股价演化形态对趋势投资者的学习强度敏感.当学习强度较小时,股价能收敛到其基本价值;超过某个临界值时,股价会偏离基本价值并形成新的均衡价格;随着学习强度进一步增加,股价演化会呈现闭环周期形式.分红波动程度存在阈值,在阈值两侧分红波动程度对股价波动程度的影响不同.
Analysis on the Influence of Dividend Volatility on the Evolution Characteristics of Stock Price
To explore the impacts of dividend volatility on the evolution characteristics of stock prices,this paper constructs a heterogeneous investor model,and analyzes this model through theoretical derivation,numerical simulation and empirical testing.The main research conclusions include:The state of stock price evolution is sensitive to the learning intensity of the trend inves-tors.When the learning intensity is low,the stock price would converge to its basic value.When a certain threshold is exceeded,the stock price deviates from its basic value and shows a new e-quilibrium.With the further increase of learning intensity,the stock price will show a closed-loop cyclic solution.There is also a threshold for the dividend volatility.The impacts of dividend vola-tility on the volatility of stock price are in the opposite direction on two sides of this threshold.

dividend fluctuationthe evolution characteristics of stock pricetime-varying risk a-versiondynamic financial system

郭战兵、张盼盼、马雨帆

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河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津 300401

分红波动 股价演化特征 时变风险厌恶 动态金融系统

2024

复杂系统与复杂性科学
青岛大学

复杂系统与复杂性科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.798
ISSN:1672-3813
年,卷(期):2024.21(4)