摘要
在新的国内外形势下,英国苏纳克政府的气候政策体现了以收缩为主要特征的调整动向.历史上,英国政府气候政策的取向呈现两轮由激进到保守的周期波动演进过程:从撒切尔到卡梅伦的历届政府构成了第一轮气候政策波动周期;特蕾莎·梅政府与约翰逊政府则接力开启了第二轮气候政策波动周期的激进上半程.处于保守下半程周期的苏纳克政府从历史逻辑、现实问题、未来发展三个维度考虑其气候政策调整领域,推动了以平衡务实为核心的保守行动、以创新投资为重点的支撑策略和以竞争合作为主题的国际战略.在国内外问题的复杂互动中,其气候政策面临国内保守右翼与激进左翼冲突、国家能力与政策愿景差距以及国际单边主义与多边主义对抗的多方面挑战.苏纳克政府对气候政策的调整动向既不利于英国净零战略的实施,也为全球气候治理带来更多的不确定性.
Abstract
In the new domestic and international situation,the climate policy of the UK Sunak Administration reflects an adjustment trend characterized by contraction.Historically,the orientation of the UK climate policy has under-gone two cycles of evolution from radical to conservative:several Administra-tions from the Thatcher to the Cameron formed the complete first cycle of cli-mate policy fluctuations,while the Administrations of Theresa May and Johnson relayed the first half of the second cycle.The Sunak Administration,which is in the second half of the conservative cycle,considers its climate policy adjustment from three dimensions:historical logic,current issues,and future develop-ment.It has promoted conservative actions centered on balance and pragmatism,with supportive strategies focused on innovation and investment,and interna-tional strategies themed on competition and cooperation.In the complex interac-tion of domestic and international issues,its climate policy faces multiple challen-ges,such as the conflict between the conservative right wing and the radical left wing at home,the gap between national capacity and policy vision,and the confrontation between international unilateralism and multilateralism.The adjust-ment trend of Sunak's climate policy is not conducive to the implementation of the UK's net zero strategy,which brings more uncertainty to global climate gov-ernance.
万方数据