HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF ROCKFALL AND LANDSLIDE ON THE KARA-KORAM HIGHWAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREME CLIMATE
To explore the impact of extreme climate events on rockfall and landslides on the Karakoram Highway,ERA5 reanalysis data covering from 1988 to 2022 involving a disaster database were utilized.The relationship be-tween disaster spatial distribution and eight extreme climate indices was analyzed,including the maximum value of daily maximum temperature,minimum value of daily minimum temperature,and Simple Precipitation Intensity In-dex.Two typical climate indices were selected as triggering factors integrated with other traditional factors to con-struct the hazard assessment framework.The information quantity method was employed to generate a hazard zona-tion map,revealing the probability of rockfall and landslides.The results showed that:(1)The entire area on the Karakoram Highway generally exhibited an increasing trend in temperature difference,short-duration,and continu-ous heavy rainfall,specifically the shorter freezing days,the higher daily precipitation intensity,and more frequent extreme high-temperature events in the eastern Taxkorgan and the Passu-Gilgit-Chilas sections;(2)Over the past 30 years,the section with the highest distribution density of disasters(Passu-Gilgit-Chilas section)showed that the peak of the maximum value of daily maximum temperature,minimum value of daily minimum temperature,and Simple Precipitation Intensity Index occurred in 2010 and 2018,while the fluctuation trend of extreme temperatures has weakened in the past decade;(3)Areas with high and very high hazards are mainly distributed in the eastern Taxkorgan-Khunjerab and the Scott-Passu-Gilgit-Chilas sections.Our research results provide a scientific basis and reference for ensuring engineering safety and conducting risk predictions on the Karakoram Highway in the future.
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