In order to solve the two major problems of determining indicator weights and uncertainty treatment in the risk analy-sis of underground comprehensive pipeline corridor,this paper proposes a risk evaluation method of underground comprehensive pipeline corridor based on game theory and Bayesian network.Firstly,this study divides the underground comprehensive pipeline corridor project into four stages,and establishes the risk evaluation index system on this basis.Then the subjective and objective weights are determined by using AHP method and entropy weight method,and the subjective and objective weights are optimized by game theory combination assignment method,and based on fuzzy theory,the probability of each state of the root node given by different experts is transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers,and the exact value of the a priori probability of the different states of the root node is obtained through the processing.Finally,the probability of risk occurrence and the a posteriori probabili-ty of each risk factor are calculated by using Bayesian inference model,and the key risk factors affecting the occurrence of risk are identified through sensitivity analysis.In addition,the feasibility of the method is verified by combining with practical case studies.The results show that the probability of the occurrence of the risk of underground comprehensive pipeline corridor in a city is 13.5％.The sensitivity analysis shows that the risk of quality and safety of the pipeline corridor project is more sensitive.The assessment results are in line with the actual situation.
维普
万方数据
