城市热岛(Urban Heat Island,UHI)对热舒适、能源和生态安全有重要影响.准确预测日最大城市热岛强度(Maximum Urban Heat Island Intensity,UHIImax)可以预警能源消耗和保障室外热安全.基于局地气候分区(Local Climate Zone,LCZ)框架,在广州选择多个LCZ分区,并进行长达3年的局地气候观测.基于实测结果验证一个欧洲学者提出的未考虑人为热的日UHIImax诊断方程的适用性;进一步检验考虑人为热后扩展方程在广州的适用性.结果表明,该原始方程诊断结果与观测结果的相关系数为0.63,均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)为1.50 K,平均绝对误差(Median Absolute Error,MEAE)为0.97 K,d=0.60,诊断精度可适用.考虑人为热的扩展方程比原始方程诊断结果更加准确,RMSE降低了0.12 K,MEAE降低了0.10 K,d增加了0.04.方程在不同的LCZ的检验结果存在差异表明应针对不同的LCZ特征对方程进行修正,但增加人为热可提升在各LCZ的诊断表现.综上,该修正方程可以作为预测局地UHI发展的工具,提高湿热地区局地UHI的诊断精度.
Applicability Test of a Diagnostic Equation for Daily Maximum Urban Heat Island Intensity Considering Anthropogenic Heat Flux
The urban heat island(UHI)has a significant impact on thermal comfort,energy,and ecological security.Accurately predicting the daily maximum urban heat island intensity(UHIImax)can provide early warning for energy consumption and ensure outdoor thermal safety.Based on the local climate zone(LCZ)framework,multiple LCZs were selected in Guangzhou,and long-term local climate observations were conducted over three years.The applicability of a diagnostic equation for daily UHIImax proposed by a European scholar,which did not consider anthropogenic heat flux(AHF),was validated based on the observed results.Furthermore,the applicability of a revised equation considering AHF was tested in Guangzhou.The results showed that the diagnostic accuracy of the original equation was acceptable,with a correlation coefficientr2 of 0.63,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of 1.50 K,Median Absolute Error(MEAE)of 0.97 K anddof 0.60.The revised equation considering AHF yielded more accurate diagnostic results than the original equation,with a decrease of 0.12 K in RMSE,a decrease of 0.10 K in MEAE,and an increase of 0.04 ind.The differences in the validation results of the equation across different LCZs indicate that the equation should be modified according to the characteristics of each LCZ.However,incorporating AHF can improve the diagnostic performance of the equation in all LCZs.In conclusion,the revised equation can be used to predict the development of UHI and improve diagnostic accuracy in hot and humid cities.
daily maximum urban heat island intensitydiagnostic equationlocal climate zoneequation evaluationanthropogenic heat flux
万方数据
维普
